Wallstreet Profit Search
Buy Recommendation: CMPS
Current Price: ~US $9.30
Target: Mid-to-Long-Term Hold Through Launch Readiness
We are issuing a buy recommendation for Compass Pathways (NASDAQ: CMPS).
Compass Pathways is the most advanced psychedelic-medicine company in the world. Its lead drug candidate, COMP360, is a proprietary synthetic formulation of psilocybin and — after two successful Phase 3 trials in treatment-resistant depression — is now the first classic psychedelic ever to clear Phase 3 and move into a rolling NDA filing at the FDA.
The company went public on September 18, 2020 at $17.00 per share and ran to an all-time high of just under $60.00 in early 2021 on excitement about being the first publicly traded psychedelic-medicine developer. It then ground through a five-year Phase 2b-to-Phase 3 development cycle, multiple dilutive raises, and a depressed biotech tape, printing an all-time low of ~$2.25 in June 2025 around the Trump tariff-driven market selloff. The stock is now trading at approximately $9.30 — quadrupled off the low, but still ~45% below its IPO price and ~84% below its all-time high.
CMPS price history from the September 2020 IPO through April 2026, with catalysts annotated.
Why CMPS, Why Now — The Five Catalysts
- Two successful Phase 3 trials. COMP006 hit its primary endpoint in February 2026 with a p-value <0.001 and a 3.8-point MADRS improvement versus control. COMP005 (reported 2025) delivered a similar -3.6 MADRS result.
- A rolling NDA already at the FDA. Management is targeting completion of the rolling NDA filing in Q4 2026, with commercial launch readiness by year-end. Additional 26-week durability data (Part B of COMP006) is expected in early Q3 2026.
- The White House just pulled the runway forward. On April 20, 2026, President Trump signed an Executive Order directing the FDA to accelerate research and appropriate drug approvals for psychedelic therapies. CMPS jumped as much as 40% intraday on the news.
- The balance sheet is no longer the risk. Compass added roughly $150M in new financing plus $200M in warrant exercises. Cash runway now extends into 2028 — straight through launch.
- The distribution network is getting built. On April 21, 2026, Compass announced a collaboration with Osmind, the platform powering a nationwide network of interventional psychiatry practices, to ready independent clinics to deliver COMP360 upon approval.
Straight From the CEO
CEO Kabir Nath — a 30-year pharma veteran who previously ran Otsuka's North American pharmaceutical business — responded to the Executive Order with the following statement:
"Today's announcement aligns regulatory urgency with patient need, and we applaud the Administration for taking this important step forward in accelerating access, without compromising rigorous science."
Mr. Nath will take the stage on a panel titled "Clinical Risk, Regulatory Reality and the Path to Scale" at the Needham Virtual Psychedelics Forum on April 27, 2026 — the next opportunity for fresh commentary that could move the stock.
What Wall Street Is Saying
Wall Street is unusually unified on CMPS. Six sell-side firms publish active coverage, all with Buy or Overweight ratings. Targets range from $14 to $70, with a mean of $24.83 and a median of $16.50. From CMPS’s current ~$9.30, that implies roughly 77% upside on the median and 167% upside on the mean. The Street’s high target of $70 (H.C. Wainwright) implies more than a 7x from current levels — though we note H.C. Wainwright is a clear outlier; excluding it, the mean of the other five drops to $15.80.
Firm-by-firm analyst targets — H.C. Wainwright $70 Buy (raised from $40, Mar 2026), Canaccord Genuity $18 Buy, B. Riley $17 Buy (initiated coverage), Morgan Stanley $16 Overweight, Stifel $14 Buy (raised from $11), BTIG Research $14 Buy (reaffirmed Apr 20, 2026).
What Wall Street Profit Search Says
CMPS is a rare setup: de-risked science, an FDA submission in motion, a supportive White House, an emerging nationwide clinic distribution network, and a balance sheet that no longer needs a dilutive raise before launch. The stock has already quadrupled from the June 2025 all-time low, yet still sits ~45% below its IPO price and ~84% below its all-time high. Wall Street targets imply roughly 77% upside on the median and 167% on the mean, and the Street's high target ($70, H.C. Wainwright) implies more than a seven-bagger.
BUY / ACCUMULATE at current levels. We view any pullback into the pre-Executive-Order gap as an opportunity to scale average price down, but be mindful of any unforeseen developments. Risk-tier this as a clinical-stage biotech and size accordingly.
Our key upcoming catalysts to watch:
- April 27, 2026 — Kabir Nath at the Needham Virtual Psychedelics Forum
- May 14, 2026 — closing date for the COMP360 provider-training grant
- Early Q3 2026 — COMP006 26-week durability (Part B) data read-out
- Q4 2026 — targeted completion of rolling NDA submission to FDA
- Year-end 2026 — commercial launch readiness
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Dave Jones
Publisher, Wall Street Profit Search.
Appendix
Key Terms — Plain English
A quick reference for the biotech and market terms used throughout this alert, for any subscriber who would like a refresher on the jargon. For broader market and trading vocabulary, see our full Glossary of Market Terms →
- NDA (New Drug Application)
- The formal package a drug maker files with the FDA asking for approval to market a drug.
- Rolling NDA
- An NDA submitted in sections as each is completed — shortens the overall approval timeline versus submitting all at once.
- Phase 3 trial
- The final and largest clinical trial stage before FDA review. Success here is what qualifies a drug for an approval filing.
- Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD)
- Depression that has not responded to at least two standard antidepressants — the target market for COMP360.
- COMP360
- Compass’s branded synthetic psilocybin formulation — the actual drug candidate.
- MADRS
- Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale — the depression severity measure used as the trial’s primary endpoint. Lower scores mean fewer symptoms.
- Primary endpoint
- The pre-specified main result a trial must hit to be called a success.
- p-value <0.001
- The probability that the result was due to chance — less than 1-in-1,000, i.e., statistically very strong.
- Executive Order
- A presidential directive to federal agencies. Here, it tells the FDA and HHS to speed psychedelic research and approvals.
- Sell-side analyst
- An analyst employed by an investment bank or brokerage (Morgan Stanley, Stifel, H.C. Wainwright, etc.) who publishes research reports with ratings (Buy / Hold / Sell) and price targets for the firm’s clients. The price targets cited in this alert all come from sell-side analysts.
- Buy-side analyst
- An analyst employed by an institution that actually buys and holds stocks for its own portfolios — mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and the like. Their research is internal and used to drive the firm’s own investment decisions, so it generally is not published. “What the buy side is doing” usually means which institutional investors are accumulating or selling the stock.
- Price target
- An analyst’s projected share price twelve months out.
- Cash runway
- How long the company can fund operations before it needs to raise more money.
- Warrant exercises
- Existing securities being converted into new common shares, bringing cash into the company.
- Dilution
- What happens to existing shareholders when a company issues new shares — each holder owns a smaller percentage of the company afterward.